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Tom Wojcik’s report, using figures dated through September 26, describes how the Strait of Hormuz closure is feeding into fuel costs, fertilizer supplies and food production. The supplied source also documents pressure on European potato harvests and winter heating in Bavaria, but ends before giving details on heating or the full outlook.
Tom Wojcik’s September 2026 report traces how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting oil shipments, fertilizer supplies and food production, with potential consequences for European fuel prices and winter heating. The account, based on figures through September 26, describes a set of connected pressures while warning that some effects, particularly on harvests, may take months to appear.
Wojcik writes that US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February and that Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic through the passage has fallen by more than 90 percent. The International Energy Agency describes the disruption as the largest in oil-market history. Brent crude rose to about $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and $108 on September 24, after a fragile ceasefire had briefly brought prices back to pre-war levels.
The report says Iran delivered Washington a written proposal on September 22 for a regional ceasefire lasting up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected it. A report cited by Wojcik said the US president expected bombing to resume after November’s midterm elections. The account also describes shipping disruptions near the Red Sea, where Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port this month.
Energy-price effects are visible in other figures cited in the report. Wojcik says the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF rose more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September, while some supertanker day rates reached about $860,000 on September 10. The fund’s manager cautioned that rates could fall if the strait reopens. In France, official figures showed 15 percent of fuel stations were out of petrol or diesel on September 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The government ruled out a national shortage; the report attributes many empty pumps to demand at TotalEnergies stations, where petrol was capped at €1.99 a litre.
Fuel Costs Reach Food Supplies
The strait’s disruption matters beyond oil because it normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertilizer, according to the report. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The timing matters: crops already planted may mask shortages until harvests arrive, while fertilizer delivered late cannot restore lost growing time.
Wojcik links the global risk to European farming. After a glut in 2025, growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany planted 14 percent less potatoes, according to the source. Five heatwaves and drought followed. Their growers’ organization now expects a harvest down 25 percent, among the smallest in a decade. In Belgium, processing-potato prices reportedly jumped from €10 to €150 a tonne within days. These figures describe a regional crop shock; the supplied material does not establish how much of it is caused by the Hormuz closure.
The report also points to existing food insecurity: 2025 was the first year of the Global Report on Food Crises to record two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan. The World Food Programme estimates that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. That is an estimate, not a count of people already affected by this year’s disruption.
Poland Between War and Energy
Wojcik frames the account from Poland, which borders Ukraine, relies on coal and imported gas for heating, and funds military spending partly through borrowing, according to his report. He argues that recent decades of replacing stockpiles and other reserves with cheaper supply arrangements left countries exposed when multiple dependencies were tested at once. That is the author’s interpretation of the events, rather than a finding attributed to a named institution.
The report also describes the war in Ukraine as affecting fuel markets. It says Ukrainian drones have hit Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, about once every four days by the IEA’s count, and that Russian refining output has fallen to a two-decade low. Half of Russia’s six largest diesel plants cut or halted production this month, and Moscow restricted fuel exports. US diesel passed $6 a gallon on September 10. According to Wojcik, the US president called Kyiv to ask it to stop striking diesel targets.
European agriculture faced strain before the current fertilizer warning. In Poland, growers harvested about 7 million tonnes of potatoes in 2025, 18 percent more than the previous year, and were selling below cost by spring, the source says. The following season brought reduced planting in several European countries before heatwaves and drought damaged crops.
“Fertilizer scarcity could cut yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.”
— UN Food and Agriculture Organization, as summarized in the report
Harvest and Heating Effects Still Unclear
The supplied source ends during its discussion of grain prices, after saying Paris milling-wheat futures had risen from €191 a tonne. It does not provide the later price, explain how the author assesses winter heating in Bavaria, or give a full estimate of how the closure will affect household costs. The scale and timing of any fertilizer-related harvest losses also remain forecasts, not confirmed outcomes.
Several figures reflect distinct causes and should not be treated as direct measures of one event. France’s empty fuel pumps were concentrated at one company’s stations and linked in the report to a price cap and faster-than-expected demand. The potato harvest outlook followed reduced planting, heatwaves and drought. The source does not quantify the share of these developments attributable to the Hormuz closure.
The account also leaves open whether the proposed ceasefire will be revisited, whether the strait will reopen, and whether the reported expectation of renewed US bombing will materialize. The figures and claims here are those provided in Wojcik’s report; the supplied material does not include independent documentation for every statement.
Watch Shipping and Harvest Updates
The immediate milestones are any change in tanker traffic through Hormuz, movement in oil and shipping prices, and further diplomatic or military developments. A ceasefire or reopening could alter freight costs, though the source gives no timetable for either outcome.
For food supplies, the next evidence will come from fertilizer availability and harvest results later in 2026 and into 2027. European potato growers’ forecasts and grain-market prices will help show how weather, planting decisions and energy-related costs are affecting supply. The supplied report offers no specific date or projection for changes to winter heating costs in Poland or Bavaria.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Tom Wojcik describes the Strait of Hormuz closure and traces its reported effects on oil transport, fertilizer supply, fuel prices and food production.
How much has tanker traffic through Hormuz fallen?
The report says traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent since Iran began keeping the strait closed in March 2026.
Does the report say France is running out of fuel?
No. It says the French government ruled out a shortage. Official figures showed 15 percent of stations were out of at least one fuel category on September 20, with many affected stations belonging to TotalEnergies.
What could happen to food supplies?
The FAO warning cited in the report says fertilizer scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The size of any resulting losses is not yet established.
What remains unknown about winter heating?
The supplied source mentions potential effects on winter heating in Bavaria and Poland but ends before presenting supporting figures or a cost estimate. The scale of any household impact is unclear.
Source: hn
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